PTA, polyester and "play with fire": the market is declining, the load is rising!

Recently, PTA and polyester are "Hi"!

As of the 24th, PTA weekly average operating rate was concentrated at 81.1%, up 2.8% from last week; real-time operating rate was 81.1%, and real-time effective operating rate was 86.4%. Polyester, as of 24, polyester average load concentrated in 91.6%, 1.4% higher than last week.

When the whole textile industry chain has entered the off-season, PTA and polyester have increased their load again. Especially in PTA, the speed of capacity improvement is more obvious. In addition to the fact that the plant is put into operation "just in time to be launched", there is also a very important reason, that is, PTA market is still profitable.

As can be seen from the table below, PTA's internal price has been difficult to break through recently, hovering around 3500 yuan / T. however, compared with that before April, the cash flow has been in a profitable State. Although the profit margin has been fluctuating, it is much better than that of polyester products which have fallen into losses, and it is still profitable. Therefore, even if it has entered the traditional off-season, PTA manufacturers still have the courage to raise the burden.

On the polyester side, the polyester load was increased due to the early production reduction or the restart of some large units in the parking enterprises, coupled with the commissioning of two new units. Among them, polyester filament load increased to about 81%.

So, PTA and polyester at the same time negative, will cause what kind of impact?

The most obvious is the inventory problem

Recently, both PTA and polyester manufacturers are in the state of difficult to go to the warehouse and easy to accumulate.

In terms of PTA, at present, the social circulation inventory of PTA has reached 2.5 million tons. In the later stage, PTA still has many sets of plant production plan, and the inventory rate will increase.

In terms of polyester, from the statistical data of China silk capital network, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 29-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 9-15 days, FDY inventory is around 20-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 29-39 days. Its own inventory has been in a very high level in the year, now polyester factory load increases again, in the case of production and sales difficult to pull up, inventory will inevitably rise again.

Polyester inventory is high, production and sales can not reach a balanced position, the natural demand for polyester raw material PTA is more reduced, reaction on PTA inventory. A vicious cycle will form between PTA and PTA.

Price is the direct feedback of inventory

Since the second half of last year, both PTA and polyester products have been in a downward channel. The price of PTA inner plate is around 3490 yuan / ton, the price of PET filament FDY 150D is around 5455 yuan / ton, the price of POY 150D is around 4950 yuan / ton, and the price of DTY 150D is around 6450 yuan / ton.

On the current price point of view, PTA and polyester filament prices are low, polyester filament before the production limit measures do not seem to have much effect. Now the production capacity is increasing, and the polyester plant is expected to be put into production in the later stage, which is undoubtedly a more severe blow to the price in a short time.

Of course, for polyester market and PTA market, crude oil and its own fundamental factors are very important, and downstream demand is also important.

But according to the current weaving Market, it can not give PTA and polyester product demand support.

It is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, footwear and knitwear were 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. However, the export situation of clothing, home textiles, shoes and hats and other terminal fields is not optimistic.

Domestic and foreign trade orders have dropped, and enterprises in downstream weaving and other fields are more and more willing to reduce production, reduce burden and take holidays. The elastic, weaving and printing and dyeing industries have heard that some enterprises have plans to stop for holidays. At the same time, some weaving and printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang have started summer vacation mode, which further aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand of textile raw materials such as polyester filament.

The upstream market is still playing with fire, and the downstream weaving and clothing have been unable to withstand. In the later stage, if the contradiction between supply and demand is still not well balanced, it is easy to have a link that will collapse. When large upstream enterprises keep expanding, the downstream market is naturally the diluted side, and it is easy to play the game of "big fish eating small fish, small fish eating shrimp". But the textile industry chain has always been "prosperity, loss", whether upstream or downstream, ultimately or to find

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PTA, polyester and "play with fire": the market is declining, the load is rising!

Hits:  Time:2016-03-14

Recently, PTA and polyester are "Hi"!

As of the 24th, PTA weekly average operating rate was concentrated at 81.1%, up 2.8% from last week; real-time operating rate was 81.1%, and real-time effective operating rate was 86.4%. Polyester, as of 24, polyester average load concentrated in 91.6%, 1.4% higher than last week.

When the whole textile industry chain has entered the off-season, PTA and polyester have increased their load again. Especially in PTA, the speed of capacity improvement is more obvious. In addition to the fact that the plant is put into operation "just in time to be launched", there is also a very important reason, that is, PTA market is still profitable.

As can be seen from the table below, PTA's internal price has been difficult to break through recently, hovering around 3500 yuan / T. however, compared with that before April, the cash flow has been in a profitable State. Although the profit margin has been fluctuating, it is much better than that of polyester products which have fallen into losses, and it is still profitable. Therefore, even if it has entered the traditional off-season, PTA manufacturers still have the courage to raise the burden.

On the polyester side, the polyester load was increased due to the early production reduction or the restart of some large units in the parking enterprises, coupled with the commissioning of two new units. Among them, polyester filament load increased to about 81%.

So, PTA and polyester at the same time negative, will cause what kind of impact?

The most obvious is the inventory problem

Recently, both PTA and polyester manufacturers are in the state of difficult to go to the warehouse and easy to accumulate.

In terms of PTA, at present, the social circulation inventory of PTA has reached 2.5 million tons. In the later stage, PTA still has many sets of plant production plan, and the inventory rate will increase.

In terms of polyester, from the statistical data of China silk capital network, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 29-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 9-15 days, FDY inventory is around 20-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 29-39 days. Its own inventory has been in a very high level in the year, now polyester factory load increases again, in the case of production and sales difficult to pull up, inventory will inevitably rise again.

Polyester inventory is high, production and sales can not reach a balanced position, the natural demand for polyester raw material PTA is more reduced, reaction on PTA inventory. A vicious cycle will form between PTA and PTA.

Price is the direct feedback of inventory

Since the second half of last year, both PTA and polyester products have been in a downward channel. The price of PTA inner plate is around 3490 yuan / ton, the price of PET filament FDY 150D is around 5455 yuan / ton, the price of POY 150D is around 4950 yuan / ton, and the price of DTY 150D is around 6450 yuan / ton.

On the current price point of view, PTA and polyester filament prices are low, polyester filament before the production limit measures do not seem to have much effect. Now the production capacity is increasing, and the polyester plant is expected to be put into production in the later stage, which is undoubtedly a more severe blow to the price in a short time.

Of course, for polyester market and PTA market, crude oil and its own fundamental factors are very important, and downstream demand is also important.

But according to the current weaving Market, it can not give PTA and polyester product demand support.

It is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, footwear and knitwear were 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. However, the export situation of clothing, home textiles, shoes and hats and other terminal fields is not optimistic.

Domestic and foreign trade orders have dropped, and enterprises in downstream weaving and other fields are more and more willing to reduce production, reduce burden and take holidays. The elastic, weaving and printing and dyeing industries have heard that some enterprises have plans to stop for holidays. At the same time, some weaving and printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang have started summer vacation mode, which further aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand of textile raw materials such as polyester filament.

The upstream market is still playing with fire, and the downstream weaving and clothing have been unable to withstand. In the later stage, if the contradiction between supply and demand is still not well balanced, it is easy to have a link that will collapse. When large upstream enterprises keep expanding, the downstream market is naturally the diluted side, and it is easy to play the game of "big fish eating small fish, small fish eating shrimp". But the textile industry chain has always been "prosperity, loss", whether upstream or downstream, ultimately or to find

 
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